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Diversity and Distributions

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Diversity and Distributions's content profile, based on 28 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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There is no silver bullet: Tiger corridors do not ensure multispecies carnivore connectivity

Rana, D.; Ramakrishnan, U.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.05.736645 medRxiv
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Connectivity is critical to sustaining endangered carnivores in speciose yet fragmented landscapes such as in the global south. Corridors to mitigate fragmentation are designed based on charismatic species or habitat-based approaches, but their multispecies effectiveness for maintaining functional connectivity remains poorly tested. We combined landscape genetic analyses across five sympatric carnivores - Panthera tigris, Panthera pardus, Prionailurus viverrinus, Felis chaus, and Melursus ursinus, to evaluate how landscape features shape functional connectivity in a globally important felid landscape. We then assessed the efficiency of existing tiger corridors and single-species surrogates for maintaining multispecies functional connectivity. Species exhibited contrasting responses to landscape variables, producing distinct resistance surfaces and connectivity corridors. Spatial similarity of connectivity between species pairs was highly variable (r = 0.14-0.93), but no single species effectively captured connectivity patterns of the broader carnivore community (maximum mean overlap of <0.7 across species). Moreover, genetically optimized corridors were at least 70% more efficient in capturing connectivity compared to existing tiger corridors, demonstrating mismatches between structural and functional connectivity. Our results highlight limitations of surrogate-based corridor planning and demonstrate that integrating multispecies functional connectivity can substantially improve conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes.

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Species-specific drivers of genetic diversity are decoupled from plant community diversity

Abdelwahed, L.; Favre-Bac, L.; Rahnamae, N.; Way, F.; Poulain, N.; Ali, T.; Eskelinen, A.; Till-Bottraud, I.; de Meaux, J.

2026-06-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.25.734591 medRxiv
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Understanding how habitat connectivity shapes biodiversity remains a major ecological challenge. In particular, the roles of connectivity and ecological heterogeneity on co-variation in plant species diversity and intraspecific genetic diversity is not understood. We combined species distribution modelling, resistance-to-movement mapping, landscape connectivity analysis and population genomics to investigate diversity patterns in three wet meadow herbs, Scorzonera humilis, Oenanthe peucedanifolia and Lychnis flos-cuculi, and their surrounding plant communities. Genetic diversity patterns differed strongly among co-occurring species. Connectivity metrics explained genetic diversity only in O. peucedanifolia, and environmental drivers of genetic diversity were highly species specific. Importantly, genetic diversity changed with the presence of some species in the community, but it was consistently unrelated to indicators of local plant community diversity. Overall, the processes shaping within-species biodiversity may differ fundamentally from those structuring habitat connectivity and plant species communities, with important implications for conservation.

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Data-driven forecasts of regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates worldwide

Capinha, C.; Mendes, M.; Catarino, J.; Soares, F. C.; Essl, F.; Seebens, H.; Oliveira, S.; Reino, L.; Ribeiro, J.

2026-07-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.08.737252 medRxiv
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Aim: To forecast near-future arrivals of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates at the regional level. Location: Global (geopolitical regions worldwide, including countries and main administrative divisions). Methods: We compiled first regional record data and assembled functional and macroecological variables for 1,931 non-native vertebrate species. For each region, we identified recently arrived non-native species using retrospective windows of thirty and twenty years ending in 2015 (1986-2015; 1996-2015). We then fitted region-specific random-forest models classifying recently arrived species versus those not yet arrived using as predictors: (i) harmonised species traits (e.g., habitat, diet, body size and native-range attributes) and (ii) spread history, capturing time since first record elsewhere. Predictive performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, comparing full models with trait-only and spread-only variants. We also assessed relationships between predictive accuracy, predictor importance, and the geographic positioning and trade connectedness of regions. Finally, we predicted region-specific probabilities of arrival for species not yet recorded. Results: Forecasting accuracy was consistently high across regions and taxa, with AUC values above 0.9 in more than half of the focal regions. Full models substantially outperformed models using either predictor set alone, and spread-history-only models typically exceeded trait-only models. Relative importance of spread-history predictors declined with geographic distance to the focal region, whereas predictability was lower in highly trade-connected regions. Predicted near-future high-risk arrivals were dominated by birds and freshwater fishes and showed strong regional structuring. A small set of species ranked highly across many regions (e.g., birds: Phasianus colchicus, Acridotheres tristis, Amandava amandava, Colinus virginianus, Corvus splendens and Lonchura malacca; fishes: Coregonus peled and Oreochromis mossambicus; mammal: Oryctolagus cuniculus), suggesting substantial unrealised spread potential. Main conclusions: Near-future regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates are predictable from spread history and species traits. This enables scalable, updateable regional watchlists to support prevention, early detection and horizon scanning.

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One scale does not fit all: invasive predator identity determines the impact on native prey

Bonet Bigata, A.; Sutherland, C.; Lambin, X.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734748 medRxiv
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O_LIWhen eradication is unfeasible, invasive predator control should evaluate how removal affects ecological responses by native species. Assessments often use total invasive predator abundance to evaluate prey responses, yet intraspecific variation in diet and space use means that some subgroups cause disproportionate impacts. Identifying these problem individuals, and the spatial scales over which their impacts operate, can enable targeted spatially explicit removal to maximise impact reduction. However, despite individual-level information is often already collected during trapping operations it is seldom included when analysing predator impacts, potentially biasing the conservation outcomes expected under blanket removal. C_LIO_LIWe use a novel framework and two decades of invasive predator control data to estimate how individual variation in residency status influences the distance-dependent impacts of invasive American mink Neogale vison on water vole Arvicola amphibius occupancy across two prey surveys. We also develop a sub-model to predict mink residency status for individuals with missing age data. C_LIO_LIThe probability of capturing adult mink decreased with elevation and years of control, indicating that long-term control altered the resident population and demographic composition of mink around water vole sites. C_LIO_LIDistance-dependent negative impacts of mink varied by residency status, becoming negligible at approximately 20 km from water vole sites for resident mink and 2 km for transient. The spatial scale of mink impacts was largest during the first vole survey when resident mink were more abundant, and declined rapidly for the second survey, when mink were less abundant and spatially clustered. Our results suggest that water voles have benefited mostly from reducing resident mink rather than the total population, especially in early control phases. C_LIO_LIManagers can use our framework to develop spatially explicit and impact-based strategies, not restricted to invasive species control, to construct empirically informed management buffers around populations of conservation concern. Long-term efforts will change the landscape and invasive predator contexts, and thus we recommend iteratively updating and re-evaluating management outcome evaluations. We argue that incorporating individual heterogeneity improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms influencing management success but that the suitability of targeted strategies should be evaluated for target socioecological contexts. C_LI

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How well is Italian biodiversity represented in red lists and conservation legislation? Taxonomic biases, coverage gaps and the assessment-to-legislation bottleneck

Miccolis, E.; Rasotto, M. B.; De Pascale, F.; Pievani, T.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.30.730850 medRxiv
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Italy, one of Europe's most biodiverse countries, is expected to undergo landscape-wide nature recovery thanks to the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. National red lists represent critical instruments for informing conservation strategies at finer geographic resolutions and prioritizing taxa of national importance; yet the taxonomic completeness of Italian red lists remains unquantified in relation to national biodiversity. Equally, no systematic evaluation has been conducted on the representation of threatened and endemic Italian taxa within European and international conservation directives and treaties. We present the first comprehensive review of threat status and policy inclusion of Italian biodiversity, encompassing animals, plants, fungi, lichens, and algae. We cross-referenced national species checklists with Italian, European, Mediterranean, and global IUCN red lists, alongside policy annexes from the Birds and Habitats Directives, the Bern and Barcelona Conventions, and CITES. Our dataset comprised 76,845 taxa, of which 8,389 are endemic; yet red list assessments exist for only 10% of this total (7,349 taxa, including 1,700 endemics). Conservation policy coverage is even more restrictive: only 1,346 taxa are listed under at least one legislative instrument, with only half of these classified as threatened. This constitutes a compounding double bottleneck with most of the Italian biodiversity remaining both unassessed and unprotected and systematically biasing conservation policy toward an unrepresentative fraction of national biodiversity. We recommend accelerated national assessments and urgent establishment of a national biodiversity priority list founded on transparent prioritization protocols. This would complement ecosystem-based interventions mandated by the Nature Restoration Regulation while correcting for vertebrate-centred biases.

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A cryptic local genetic cluster in Northern France amid the European mosaic of flat oyster lineages revealed by integrating SNP array and whole-genome sequencing

Lapegue, S.; Cornette, F.; Heurtebise, S.; Pouvreau, S.; Carpentier, C.; Colston-Nepali, L.; Bierne, N.; Reisser, C.

2026-06-28 genetics 10.64898/2026.06.26.734753 medRxiv
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The European flat oyster (Ostrea edulis), like numerous other oyster species, has been exploited for millennia and cultivated and translocated for centuries. Following a severe population decline, and in the context of ongoing conservation and restoration programs, genetic considerations must now be addressed to avoid mistakes. The objective of our study was to complement population genetic studies conducted at various scales along European coasts. Our sampling primarily targeted the French Atlantic, English Channel, and Mediterranean coasts, aiming to provide a fine-scale genetic characterization of populations in these regions. By integrating SNP array and low-coverage sequencing datasets, we obtained a comprehensive overview of the population genetic structure of Ostrea edulis across western Europe. Most previously identified clusters in Western Europe were confirmed. In France, populations assigned to these clusters exhibited notable within-patch homogeneity. However, two key findings emerged: (1) an extensive overlap zone between the Atlantic and western Mediterranean clusters, spanning at least from southern Portugal to southern France, and (2) the detection of a novel, clearly distinct cryptic cluster east of the English Channel, whose geographic range remains to be better delineated. These insights are critical for informing management decisions, particularly as restoration and conservation plans are currently being implemented across the species range.

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Exome Sequencing and Allele Dosage Analysis of Coast Redwood, a Hexaploid Conifer, Indicates Continuous Population Structure with a Population Break South of San Francisco Bay.

Nikolaeva, A. S.; Santangelo, J.; Smith, L.; Dodd, R.; Nielsen, R.

2026-07-07 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.20.689601 medRxiv
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The coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) is a long-lived, hexaploid conifer of high ecological, cultural, and economic value whose range has been greatly reduced by historical logging. Effective restoration and conservation depend on understanding patterns of genetic differentiation across the redwood range to delineate populations for management prioritization. Yet, past range-wide studies provided only a partial picture of population structure in coast redwood as they relied on a limited set of genetic markers or limited sampling, as sequencing was done on the same range-wide provenance collection. Here, we analyze 334,029 SNPs from a new range-wide set of 224 individuals using a dosage-based approach that accounts for polyploidy. Principal coordinates and neighbor-joining analyses reveal clear latitudinal genetic differentiation, with a distinct break south of San Francisco Bay. Outlier SNP analysis indicates new candidate loci involved in salinity tolerance, climate stress response, and nutrient uptake, suggesting potential local adaptation. These results point to the central role of geography in shaping genetic variation in coast redwood and give scientific basis for designing new conservation strategies and future experiments, including assisted migration, provenance trials, and restoration planning aimed at preserving the species into the future.

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Ecosystem service gradients at protected area borders reveal multiple patterns and prevalent management conflicts

Gonzalez-Garcia, A.; Neyret, M.; Lopez-Tejedor, A.; Prima, M. C.; Si-Moussi, S.; Renaud, J.; Gueguen, M.; Lavorel, S.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.30.735453 medRxiv
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Protected areas cannot halt biodiversity loss in isolation; integrating them with surrounding human-dominated landscapes is critical. However, this integration is challenged by substantial landscape heterogeneity at their borders, hindering our understanding of cross-border changes in ecosystem service provision. We introduce a novel framework for characterizing these dynamics by analyzing ecosystem service gradients along protected area borders. For 16 protected areas in the French Alps, we assessed 12 ecosystem services using a mix of established biophysical models and novel connectivity-based models for mobile species. These were aggregated into three stakeholder-driven domains reflecting respectively rural, cultural, and urban management priorities. Automated polynomial regression analysis classified borders into five gradient types. The most common were 'Decreasing Gradients', representing a decline in ecosystem services outside the protected area, and 'Increasing Gradients', with the opposite pattern. Our analysis reveals these patterns are driven by specific landscape configurations, uncovering frequent trade-offs between the three management priorities, where, for instance, landscapes supporting rural priorities often degrade cultural and urban ones. We also identify key opportunities for synergies, by identifying areas where ecosystem services for all three priority domains increase simultaneously outside the protected area. This spatially explicit typology provides a powerful diagnostic tool for designing targeted interventions, such as prioritizing habitat restoration where ecosystem services decline or managing agricultural landscapes to mitigate conflicts across management priorities, supporting a more effective integration of protected areas into the wider landscape.

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Continent-wide calibration of camera-trap metrics reveals low population densities in the European wildcat

Nogueira, C.; Alves, B. S. G.; Anile, S.; Barona, J.; Bastianelli, M. L.; Burgos, T.; Catello, M.; Curveira-Santos, G.; Diaz-Ruiz, F.; Federico, P.; Fiderer, C.; Flezar, U.; Gerngross, P.; Gil-Sanchez, J. M.; Henrich, M.; Hernandez-Hernandez, J.; Heurich, M.; Krofel, M.; Maronde, L.; Matias, G.; Moeller, A. K.; Molinari-Jobin, A.; Peters, A.; Port, M.; Premier, J.; Rocha, F.; Sanchez-Cerda, M.; Sayol, F.; Vilella, M.; Virgos, E.; Zimmermann, F.; Ferreras, P.; Jimenez, J.; Monterroso, P.

2026-07-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.06.734798 medRxiv
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Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species' range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 {+/-} 11.56 inds/100km2, while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 {+/-} 5.33 inds/100km2). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R2=0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R2=0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species' distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

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Genomic offset is not predictive of recent demographic trends in Lycaeides butterflies

Reis, G. A.; Forister, M.; Lucas, L.; Shapiro, A.; Fordyce, J.; Nice, C.; Gompert, Z.

2026-06-25 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.21.733565 medRxiv
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Genomic offset (GO) is increasingly used to predict population maladaptation risk under climate change, with larger offsets assumed to indicate greater vulnerability. Despite rapid adoption in conservation planning, it remains unclear how sensitive GO estimates are to key methodological choices, including SNP set composition, genotype-environment association (GEA) methods, and the specific GO metric used. Empirical validation against observed population dynamics also remains limited. Here, we evaluate the methodological robustness and predictive performance of GO using multidecadal demographic monitoring data from Lycaeides butterflies, a system with short generation times and high fecundity that may facilitate rapid adaptive responses. GO estimates were broadly consistent across SNP sets, regardless of composition or size, with climate-associated and randomly selected SNPs yielding largely concordant values. Consistency across GEA methods was moderate and depended on the SNP set used. In contrast, GO metrics differed substantially in the magnitude of maladaptation estimated, suggesting they capture distinct biological signals and should not be treated as interchangeable. Crucially, GO was a poor predictor of observed population trends, regardless of SNP set composition, GO metric, or GEA method, both at sites used to fit GEA models and when extrapolated to independent demographic sites. These findings suggest that, while GO provides a valuable conceptual framework for assessing potential maladaptation, its quantitative estimates and predictive power are sensitive to methodological choices and species-specific biological context. We therefore urge careful alignment of GO metric assumptions with conservation objectives, along with rigorous empirical validation, before GO estimates are used to inform management decisions.

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Where species distribution models fail under occurrence-data contamination: calibration error concentrates at stream-network headwaters

Miok, K.; Laza, A. V.; Skrlj, B.; Robnik-Sikonja, M.; Parvulescu, L.

2026-07-15 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738364 medRxiv
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Species distribution models (SDMs) increasingly inform conservation and biosecurity decisions in freshwater systems, where the reliability of its uncertainty estimates matters as much as its point predictions. Ensemble SDMs derive prediction intervals from across-replicate variance, but this variance captures systematic error only when replicates disagree about it, an assumption that fails when training data are contaminated with low-accuracy records, the norm in citizen-science datasets. Whether this failure is spatially uniform or concentrates in identifiable parts of a range is unknown. Using a panel of European freshwater crayfish spanning native headwater-associated species and invasive lowland colonizers, we show that contamination-induced calibration failure is strongly spatially structured: it concentrates at stream-network headwaters, the topological tops of the network, where upstream-aggregated predictors are structurally undefined, and scales with contamination severity, replicated across four species and both dominant ensemble protocols (replicate and consensus). The failure is driven by upward prediction bias, not by intervals failing to widen: contaminated ensembles overpredict suitability in headwaters, and because the bias is shared across ensemble members, the intervals do not flag it. This is a conservation-relevant blind spot, because headwaters are both refugia for threatened native crayfish and front lines for invasion; an SDM that silently overpredicts suitability there misdirects survey and management effort toward the segments where its predictions are least trustworthy. Standard leave-one-basin-out conformal calibration, the recommended panel-wide remedy, repairs marginal coverage but leaves headwaters undercovered, because a single calibration threshold is dominated by the abundant non-headwater segments. A group-conditional (Mondrian) variant, calibrating the two populations separately, restores reliable coverage in both at no extra cost and reallocates width where it is needed. We recommend network-position-stratified calibration as a default for ensemble SDMs in dendritic freshwater systems.

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Color polymorphism in the saddleback clownfish, Amphiprion polymnus: species or complex?

Fitzgerald, L. M.; Coulmance, F.; Marcionetti, A.; Gaboriau, T.; Garcia Jimenez, A.; Apag, P. T.; Versteeg, M.; Noble, F. J.; Gaffney, K.; Mercader, M.; Diola, A. G.; Geraldino, P. J.; Rueger, T.; Laudet, V.; Salamin, N.

2026-06-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.28.735040 medRxiv
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Color polymorphism can facilitate local adaptation, maintain intraspecific diversity, or reflect early stages of speciation. Clownfishes (Amphiprion spp.) typically display a simple black, orange, and white pattern, but the saddleback clownfish (Amphiprion polymnus) shows striking variation in melanism and the number of vertical bars, which are thought to play a role in species recognition. In 2024, a revision on iNaturalist split A. polymnus into multiple species based solely on color pattern and geographic range. This raises the question of whether these morphs represent true species or intraspecific polymorphism, which we tested using genomic and image-based data. We sampled 97 individuals from seven populations across the species range and quantified color patterns from standardized photographs. Phenotypic and genomic analyses reveal a complex pattern of divergence. Image analysis identified three distinct phenotypic clusters, with A. polymnus, A. annamensis, and A. laticlavius each showing consistent differences in saddle shape and vertical bar extent. ADMIXTURE resolved three distinct genetic groups corresponding to the morphs. Pairwise FST (0.54-0.71) and dxy indicate extremely high differentiation between A. polymnus and A. annamensis, consistent with species-level divergence, whereas A. laticlavius shows much lower differentiation from A. polymnus (FST 0.09-0.18) and higher differentiation from A. annamensis (FST 0.64-0.66). Overall, phenotypic and genomic data show structured variation, but the status of A. laticlavius remains ambiguous. Our study reveals clear and structured divergence across the full range, yet the taxonomic interpretation of this variation remains inherently challenging. The key question remains: do these patterns reflect a single polymorphic species or a complex of closely related species?

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Genomic predictions of climate change vulnerability in the emblematic mountain butterfly Parnassius apollo

Francisco, T.; Lambert-Auger, F.; Mazoyer, G.; Despres, L.

2026-06-28 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.22.733620 medRxiv
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The unprecedented rate of climate warming threatens many species, and assessing their vulnerability to climate change represents a critical challenge in conservation biology. The Apollo butterfly, an emblematic mountain species, is expected to be impacted by climate change. Here, we analysed thousands of SNPs from 101 localities across Apollo French distribution. We identified 93 SNPs strongly associated with climate variation using five genotype-environment association analyses. We forecasted future climate maladaptation of French Apollo populations using four genomic offset methods and integrated these results with neutral and adaptive genetic diversity, genetic structure and adaptive climatic niches to infer their vulnerability to climate change. Jura and Alps populations exhibited the lowest risk of vulnerability to climate change, with low genomic offsets, high genetic diversity and connectivity, whereas Auvergne populations showed the highest genomic offsets and lowest neutral and adaptive genetic diversity. Only a reduced percentage (<1%) of the current distribution is predicted to face climatic conditions outside the current range, suggesting that adaptive variability required to adapt to future climates may already be present, and that assisted gene flow could represent an effective conservation strategy. Finally, we discuss some of the main challenges of genomic forecasts, particularly for declining non-model species.

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Biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae fishes

Costa, J. H. A. d.; Guedes, G. H. S.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.04.736495 medRxiv
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The biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by persistent gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and conservation knowledge. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Linnean, Wallacean, and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae (Cyprinodontiformes), one of the most diverse families of Neotropical freshwater fishes. To this end, an extensive dataset was compiled, comprising 494 valid species, 51 synonyms, 3,419 occurrence records, and information on life cycle, distribution, and conservation status. The Linnean shortfall remains open: after 1975, the rate of species description increased sharply, and estimates indicate that 103 species remain undescribed (95% CI: 53-212). The year of species description was influenced by detectability and accessibility factors, with larger species, more widely distributed species, and species occurring in more densely populated areas being described earlier. The Wallacean shortfall was broad and spatially uneven: only 5.34% of the region was considered adequately sampled. The conservation shortfall was also substantial: 179 species are threatened with extinction, 69 species remain Not Evaluated, and 62 are Data Deficient. The mean time between taxonomic description and first IUCN extinction-risk assessment was 25.7 years. Moreover, 59.9% of species have no records within protected areas, including 69.3% of threatened species. These findings synthesize an urgent challenge: biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls must be overcome simultaneously to protect species that are still being discovered, remain poorly documented spatially, and are restricted to habitats under intense anthropogenic pressure. The conservation of Rivulidae cannot wait for complete knowledge; action amid uncertainty is necessary to prevent both known and unknown species from disappearing.

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Small stream restoration increases habitat and plant diversity across scales

Lerbs, L.; Singer, A.; Dotzert, A.; Grunwald, L.; Lampe, J.; Farwig, N.; Liepelt, S.; Willems, F. M.; Pinkert, S.; Bucharova, A.

2026-06-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.733988 medRxiv
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A majority of stream restoration efforts in central Europe focus on streams that are less than five meters wide. Restoration aims to increase structural complexity, thereby enhancing habitat heterogeneity, promoting biodiversity, and reestablishing aquatic-terrestrial linkages that can drive responses in adjacent terrestrial communities. However, the effects of small stream restoration on terrestrial biodiversity remain poorly understood because research focuses mainly on large rivers. Here, we investigated the effects of restoration on the structural complexity of the stream channel as well as the terrestrial habitat and plant diversity on a local and landscape scale across 55 small streams in an agricultural landscape. We compared restored stream sections with non-restored ones that were similar to the conditions before restoration. We also assessed how restored sections changed over time since restoration. Restored stream sections showed a higher stream structural complexity and habitat diversity, both of which are targets of active restoration measures. Restoration also increased riparian plant diversity, both directly and indirectly through structural complexity and habitat diversity. Although time since restoration did not influence structural complexity, it drove successional changes in plant communities that became increasingly associated with wetland habitat conditions. Our results demonstrate that small stream restoration effectively increases floodplain habitat and plant diversity in agricultural landscapes, primarily by enhancing water availability in the floodplain. Restoration actions on small streams support biodiversity if they improve stream channel complexity, connect the stream with its floodplain, and create floodplain habitats.

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Anthropogenic subsidies reshape Ruby-throated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) interactions across spatial and temporal contexts: evidence from community-collected data

Narango, D. L.; Jones, A.; Rebozo, R.; Sosa, P.; Hallworth, M.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.03.733347 medRxiv
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1. Ruby-throated hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris) exhibit flower preferences and readily visit human subsidies like feeders. However, foraging behavior and plant-animal interactions may vary across spatial, temporal, and landscape gradients. Despite the popularity and ubiquity of Ruby-throated Hummingbirds in the eastern U.S., there has never been a quantitative assessment of their flower preferences or feeder use across broad scales. 2. We investigated how feeder visitation, flower visitation, and flower trait preferences vary by latitude, season, and land use in the northeastern United States using over 6 million occurrence records of Ruby-throated Hummingbirds and flowering plants, >2,100 annotated hummingbird-flower interactions, and >2,700 feeder visit occurrences. 3. We found that hummingbird feeder use declined over the year, increased with latitude, and was higher in developed landscapes. Flower visitation increased over the year across all latitudes, with higher visitation in developed landscapes. Finally, we found that native plant use diverged between landscapes, such that the probability of visiting a native flower increased over time in non-developed land uses but declined over time in developed ones, demonstrating that hummingbirds track the advancement of native floral phenology and use non-native, cultivated flowers as a human subsidy due to either availability or preferences. 4. Our preference and network models revealed that while hummingbird-plant network structure was similar across landscapes, the composition of important taxa shifted from native, wild species like Monarda and Impatiens to non-native, cultivated species like Salvia. 5. Using trait-based models of flower visitation, we found that hummingbirds preferred native, tubular, and red/orange flowers fitting the hummingbird pollination syndrome despite visiting >260 different plant species. Red and orange flowers were preferred across all seasons, suggesting color may be a reliable signal of nectar availability across species and contexts. Native and tubular flowers were strongly preferred during the breeding season; however, preferences relaxed during spring and fall migration. 6. These findings reveal the consistent preferences of Ruby-throated Hummingbirds for native, tubular, and red/orange flowers, and underscore how spatial and temporal factors reshape foraging behavior and trait preferences. Our results also highlight the value of community-collected data in characterizing plant-pollinator interactions across broad spatial and temporal scales.

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Biodiversity material remains where capacity and governance are strong, but taxonomic resources concentrate with geopolitical power

Moura, M. R.; Silva, R. H. P.; Pedrozo, M.; Guedes, J. J. M.; Uetz, P.; Moroti, M. d. T.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.734087 medRxiv
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AimBiodiversity-rich regions often lack the scientific infrastructure needed to document and curate their own biodiversity, creating inequalities in access to taxonomic reference material. We investigated how biological, institutional, and geopolitical factors shape the retention, extraction, and appropriation of reptile holotypes, the name-bearing specimens upon which species descriptions are based. LocationGlobal. TaxonReptiles. MethodsWe compiled a historical dataset of reptile holotype origins and destinations spanning 1758-2024 to reconstruct long-term patterns of retention and international specimen flows. We then quantified species-level holotype retention, holotype flows between country pairs, and country-level patterns of retention, appropriation, and network centrality for the period 1990-2024, and used generalised linear mixed models to assess the biological, institutional, and geopolitical determinants of these contemporary circulation processes. ResultsAlthough nearly 90% of reptile species described originated in the Global South, less than a quarter of their holotypes remain housed there. Historically, exported holotypes consistently outnumbered retained holotypes on a decadal basis until the early twenty-first century. Retention was promoted by local scientific capacity, institutional infrastructure, collector involvement in species descriptions, and environmental governance. In contrast, extraction was concentrated in highly endemic regions with limited scientific infrastructure and was associated with taxonomic revisions, socioeconomic interest, and disparities in political stability and colonial history. Appropriation of foreign holotypes was greatest in countries with high research investment, strong environmental governance, and historical geopolitical influence. Main conclusionsGlobal patterns of holotype circulation reflect a persistent geography of scientific inequality. The distribution of taxonomic reference material emerges from the interaction of retention, extraction, and appropriation processes, linking local biodiversity discovery to uneven global scientific capacity. Reducing these inequalities will require investments in taxonomic expertise, institutional infrastructure, and governance frameworks that promote more equitable stewardship of biodiversity knowledge and its material foundations.

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Individual-level traits outweigh neighborhood and landscape level factors for frugivorous insect parasites in small forest patches

Back, T. C.; Miller, N. R.; Yang, S.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734278 medRxiv
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Frugivorous insect larvae are dependent on fruiting plants for development, leading to complex host-parasite interactions that may be influenced by many factors at various scales. We compared the relative effects of factors at the individual, neighborhood, and landscape scales in forest patches. Our results suggest that in areas like upstate New York, where agricultural land uses are dominant, individual scale factors are the most influential. Specifically, parasitism increased with host fruit crop size, but was not associated with host species richness or proximity to forest edge. Notably, the most parasitized hosts were non-native species, including Frangula alnus Mill. (Glossy Buckthorn), indicating a potential role of invasive species to shape host-parasite interactions in our system. Our results underscore the importance of host-specific traits in structuring parasitism patterns and suggest management could consider both the ecological context of host traits and the influence of invasive species at multiple scales.

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From field naturalism to Bayesian models: fog-frost interaction shapes growth form partitioning along Himalayan gradient

Wangda, P.; Whitman, M.; Ohsawa, M.; Ashton, P. S.

2026-06-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.25.733531 medRxiv
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AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWMountain gradients facilitate our understanding of species range limits, competition dynamics, stress-resilience trade-offs, and determinants of vegetation zone boundaries. Forest compositional models often use altitude as the main predictor, a proxy for temperature that is defensible where floristic transitions are gradual and climate relationships are linear. However, mountains with distinct assemblages, representing tropical gradients or areas with complex biogeographic history, require a modeling framework that reflects non-linear dynamics or interactions between environmental factors, including outlier events (rather than mean conditions). Our study system encompasses both tropical and temperate forests along a broad ([~]3000 m) altitudinal gradient, positioned within a narrow latitudinal band (< 1{degrees}) and composed of mature, continuous forest in the Bhutan Himalaya. To represent the breadth of climatic conditions experienced over a trees lifetime, we used a Bayesian modeling paradigm and integrated multi-generational field knowledge to develop a priori hypotheses and informed priors, with consideration of monsoon seasonality and possible ecophysiological thresholds. Our approach followed three stages (the Pattern, the Mechanism, the Test). Specifically, we interpolated microclimate data and derived custom metrics based on thermodynamics, propagating uncertainty into subsequent models to test whether climate posteriors outperformed altitude in explaining growth form partitioning. For spatial patterns, we identified six distinct vegetation zones (encompassing 145 species from 57 families), with a mid-gradient peak in richness at the tropical-temperate transition zone, and convergence of deciduousness at either end of the gradient. For individual growth forms, abundance was tied to different ecological mechanisms, explained by adaptations to climatic stressors and competition trade-offs. For instance, evergreen broad-leaved dominance was linked to ephemeral cloud immersion, whereas tropical deciduous species were affiliated with higher vapor pressure deficit at lower altitudes. Most importantly, compositional (between-group) models showed that the interaction between frost events and fog probability (air saturation prior to the dry season) governed growth form partitioning more than any single factor; temperate deciduous species, confined to a narrow altitudinal band, exemplified this finding. Our methodological approach is transferable to other data-sparse mountain systems, and our results highlight the vulnerability of unique habitat types and montane endemics under climate change scenarios that alter the fog-frost dynamics. Second abstract in DzongkhaTo see the second abstract in Dzongkha, the official language of Bhutan, please visit our Zenodo site: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19081441.

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Large parks and city-wide tree cover boost butterfly diversity across 22 major U.S. cities

Ulrich, J.; Cheung, Y. Y. J.; Cosma, C. T.; Kharouba, H.; Guzman, L. M.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.02.736135 medRxiv
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Accelerating global urbanization necessitates a better understanding of how to manage cities that promote biodiversity. However, we currently lack multi-year, multi-city studies, which limits a generalizable understanding of how both within and between city differences impact the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban biodiversity. Here, we tested hypotheses about the drivers of butterfly diversity within and across urban parks by applying Bayesian occupancy models to five years of iNaturalist community science data from 2,550 parks in 22 major U.S. cities. We found that cities with bigger parks supported more species per park, including more disturbance- and edge-avoidant species. This was driven by a positive effect of park size on butterfly species colonization rates. We also found that attributes of habitat quality (plant diversity within parks and tree cover surrounding parks) contributed to butterfly species occupancy. Park connectivity increased species persistence, but the overall effects on butterfly species occupancy varied across cities. Finally, we found that the total area of tree cover throughout a city, rather than the size or connectivity of individual parks, was the primary determinant of city-wide diversity: Increasing total tree canopy cover from below-average (~6%) to above-average (~22%) increased city-wide species richness by ~10%. These findings highlight the need for cities to maintain large parks while also increasing city-wide tree cover to support biodiversity across local to regional scales. By integrating high-resolution community science data across the continental U.S., this study provides mechanistic insight into how cross-scale processes shape urban biodiversity dynamics and identifies generalizable recommendations for improving urban conservation management.